How we know

Where each figure comes from

Read dates as of 18 October 2026

Every figure on this site names its source and its year beside it. These are the sources behind them. Where a source does not cover something, we say we do not know rather than fill the gap.

The full list of sources and licences, including the maps and the smaller sources not listed here.

How much we hold

Worked out from the data on 19 October 2026

• 20,353state schools, and 1,432 private schools, in 153 councils: register, results and inspections.
• 24%of state schools (4,867 of 20,061) have a last distance offered from their council's offer-day figures, for at least one year.
  10,758 have offer-day figures of some kind, from 108 councils; the newest are for 2026. Many councils do not publish a distance for every school, and some publish nothing per school.
• 45%of the state schools that use a catchment have its map here (5,173 of 11,448).
  All of the maps are held for 5 of the 108 councils that use catchments. 45 more councils admit by distance and draw none. Where we hold no map, we say so: an address that is not in the maps we hold may still be in a catchment.
• 55%of private schools have their fees here (793 of 1,432).
  93% of those are for 2026/27. The rest publish no fees, or give them only to families who ask.
• 20%of nurseries have fees read from their own website (3,471 of 17,764).
  Most nurseries do not publish a price. Elsewhere we show the typical price for the region, and say that is what it is.
• 115 of 153councils have their own admission dates on file.
  For the rest we show the national dates every council works to, and say so.

We add councils and years as they are published, and these figures change as we do.

What we refuse to do

Test run 19 October 2026

• We do not predict a child's chance of a place. We show what each council published: how many applied, how many places there were, how far the last place went, and in which year.
• “Not in the catchment maps we hold” never becomes “outside the catchment”. Our maps are not complete, and we say which councils' we hold.
• A figure we do not hold is unknown, never nought. Small figures the DfE hides to protect pupils are shown as hidden.
• No estimate is shown until its own backtest has passed, and where an estimate would be a guess (no floor area on any register, too few sales nearby) it says so instead of giving a number.
• No property portal data. Homes' sale prices come from HM Land Registry, never from asking prices on property websites.

Why we stopped saying “likely”

We used to tell families how a school's past offer days compared with their address in one word: “likely”, “borderline” or “unlikely”.

We tested it against what really happened. We went back over every case where a school's offer-day figures were published two years running (18,160 in all), gave each the word the earlier year supported, and looked at the next year. We had said “likely” at 21 school-years. At 4 of the 21, families in that position were refused: 13 in 100 of the homes we tested, counting each school-year once. Our own limit was 5 in 100. It failed, and it rests on only 21 school-years. So the word is gone. We show the published figures, dated, and where your address stands against them, and leave the judgement to you.

The whole test

Offer day only: places that came up later from waiting lists are not counted. A family with a sibling at the school, a faith claim or an EHC plan ranks ahead, and is not what was tested.

Home valuations: our backtest

Test run 19 October 2026

The valuation uses only open registers: HM Land Registry's sales, the EPC register's floor areas and the UK House Price Index. To test it, we take real sales, rebuild each home from those registers, value it as of the day it sold from the sales before that day only, and compare our figure with the price it fetched.

Published

On 1,796 real sales:

• Typical error 8.4%: half of our figures were closer than this to the price the home sold for, half further.
• 82.5% within 20% of the sale price.
• The range held 82.3% of the time: we give a range meant to hold 8 times in 10, and the sale fell inside it this often.
• It valued 96.7% of the homes; for the rest it said it could not, rather than guess.

Where it is weakest: flats, with a typical error of 13.0% and 69.9% within 20%. Floor, outlook, lease and service charge are on no open register, so we give these a wider range.

It is history, not a promise: a sale price also reflects condition, timing and the buyer.

Extensions: our backtest

Test run 19 October 2026

We found homes whose floor area grew between two energy certificates and that Land Registry shows sold before and after, took out the change in local prices over the same years, and compared what the extension added with what our estimate would have said, for homes the estimate had not seen. Homes that did not change are the control.

Published

On 949 extended homes:

• Typical error 11.7% of the home's value; our bar was 12%. Much of this is the noise in comparing one sale with the next, which an estimate cannot remove.
• On average it was off by 0.6% of value, neither high nor low overall.
• The range we give is meant to hold 8 times in 10; it held within 0.8 points of that.
• Its error was 78% of the error of assuming an extension adds nothing.

Where it answers: London and the South East only.

Where it refuses, and why:

• The East of England: only 11 extended homes measured here; 30 are needed.
• The Midlands: the model does no better here than saying an extension adds nothing.
• The North: the model does no better here than saying an extension adds nothing.
• The South West: the backtest is off by +7% of value here.

We always show the range with the figure, and say when the addition is small enough that the figure is less sure. Building costs come from published cost guides, before VAT: get quotes.

If we are wrong

Checked 20 October 2026

Tell us at hello@kinplace.co.uk. Say which page and which figure. We check it against its source, fix it, and put a dated note where it appeared.

No corrections have been needed yet. When one is, it will be listed here with its date.